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Friday, July 13, 2018

NOTES FROM THE SENATE, JULY 13, 2018

A WEIRD BUT BANNER YEAR FOR GEORGIA REVENUES

Maybe we just chalk it up to the federal tax cut altering people's behavior, or maybe the state just had a great holiday season and sluggishness since, but how can you argue with the year-end results of Georgia's revenues? Here are the major points of the FY 18 Fiscal year that ended June 30, 2018.

Total revenues for FY 2018-- $22.7 Billion
Overall increase over FY 2017-- 4.4%
Amount of increase in total revenues for FY18 over FY 17-- $961.3
Amount revenues for FY 18 that exceed the present amount budgeted-- $343.8 million
Individual Income Taxes-- Up 6.1%
Net Sales taxes for FY 18-- up 3.6%
Motor fuel excise taxes and fees total-- $1.99 Billion-- up $63.1 million
Corporate income Taxes-- up $32.4 million, 3.3%

The balance of the numbers are mixed. Tag Title and Fees category is up 8.5% while Title Ad Valorem Taxes are negative at -$63.6 million, or 6.5%. Tobacco Taxes are positive for the year at 1.9% and Alcoholic Beverages receipts are up 1.2%.

SO, HOW ARE OTHER STATES DOING?

The phenomenon that followed the federal tax cut announce saw virtually every state show very positive results in December and January and consequently most SE states are winding up with a very positive year for the fiscal year ending in June. Additionally, the states that depend on oil revenues are doing much better as oil prices have spiked increasing to over $70 per barrel. Here are the states we have reports on at the present time:

Through June
Georgia 4.4%
Alabama 5.1%
Texas 10.4%
Louisiana 5.5%
West Virginia 1.9%
Kentucky 3.0%
Arkansas 2.7%

Through May
North Carolina 3.4%
Florida 5.2%
South Carolina 7.7%
Tennessee 4.4%
Mississippi 1.2%
Virginia 5.8%

GEORGIA GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) GROWING

A recent report released May 4, 2018 shows the Percent Change in Real GDP in Georgia growth for 2017 to be higher than any state in the Southeast. Percent change in Real GDP grew 2.7% in 2017 over 2016 according to the Federal Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Southeastern states are shown below:
Growth
Georgia 2.7%
Florida 2.2%
South Carolina 2.3%
North Carolina 2.3%
Virginia 2.0
Tennessee 2.5%
Alabama 1.2%
Mississippi 0.3%
Texas 2.6%
Louisiana -0.2%

Certainly some states are doing better in 2018 particularly in the oil producing and refining states. Generally all states have had a better revenue year this year than in past years. Georgia remains very consistently at the top or near top of Southeastern states.

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